US to Cast the Verdict on Trump’s Last 4 Years

Last week we saw the news focus on the rise of COVID cases in the UK and Europe. France and Germany announced on Friday that they will be implementing lockdown measures; which was swiftly followed on Saturday by the UK's own announcement. Despite the negative news surrounding lockdown, we saw economic data paint a more positive picture as both US and Eurozone GDP growth exceeded the massive contractions in Q2. In addition, the German October IFO survey revealed the first rise in expectations in four months. In the meantime, the ECB hinted strongly at further policy changes in December which are likely to manifest itself in further QE. The US election continues to dominate headlines with Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday. The final weekend saw both candidates continue and drive their campaigns towards the finish lines. As it currently stands according to Real Clear Politics is showing the aggregation of betting odds with Joe Biden showing a 64.7% probability of winning. Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the US Elections Project stated that as of Sunday afternoon 34,004,455 in-person votes and 59,126,562 mailed ballots had been returned to election authorities; accounting for two-thirds of all 2016 turnout. It is likely that economic data and news may take a back seat this week and the focus will firmly be on lockdown measures and the US Presidential race. However, there is still a loaded calendar with UK and US interest rate decisions and US employment data.