About Natalie

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Natalie has created 12 blog entries.

October FX Forecast

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” - George Soros Following the news that President Trump contracted COVID and the unknown implications and UK/EU trade talks being extended once again, the level of uncertainty has once again increased with some potential unexpected outcomes looming. With so many unknowns that could materialise, we have collected the views of over 40 financial institutions to articulate the high, low and mean forecasts for the next 12 months in an attempt to provide this information to businesses. As you will see, the forecasts still predict a high degree of uncertainty based on the differential. Download the PDF report for the details: Infinity_FX Forecast October Infinity International would be happy to offer a complimentary FX review of your current process to offer a fresh perspective and to highlight any areas that could be made more efficient.  If you would like to organise a time for an exploratory conversation, please leave your details below. The review would encapsulate: Strategy ideation to align FX risk management with your business objectives FX volatility assessment to understand the impact of a significant FX rate Credit terms to ensure efficiency for cashflow when hedging currency (subject to approval) FX pricing to determine your current cost of your current provider vs Infinity International rate Fill out the below form to receive an obligation free FX review: Request a FREE FX

2020-10-14T13:31:35+00:00October 14th, 2020|

September 2020 FX Forecast

“I don’t make predictions. I know what I can do, and I try not to think too far ahead.” - Bradley Wiggins Since the delayed Tour De France is taking place we thought it would be appropriate to quote Britain’s first Yellow Jersey winner; 2012, what a great year that was. Fast forward to today, not such a great year, the global economy is still recovering and markets are still split on the direction of this and as a result the residual impact on currency markets. Unlike Sir Bradley, financial institutions are constantly making predictions. We have collected the views of over 40 financial institutions to articulate the high, low and mean forecasts for the next 12 months in an attempt to provide this information to businesses. As you will see, the forecasts still predict a high degree of uncertainty based on the differential. Download the PDF report for the details: September FX Forecast Infinity International would be happy to offer a complimentary FX review of your current process to offer a fresh perspective and to highlight any areas that could be made more efficient.  If you would like to organise a time for an exploratory conversation, please leave your details below. The review would encapsulate: Strategy ideation to align FX risk management with your business objectives FX volatility assessment to understand the impact of a significant FX rate Credit terms to ensure efficiency for cashflow when hedging currency (subject to approval) FX pricing to determine your current cost of your current provider

2020-09-08T16:40:15+00:00September 8th, 2020|

5 Looming Dilemmas of 2020 & the FX impact

By Jamie Jemmeson ACSI, MSTA & Tyler Betts, FX Risk Manager at Infinity International “You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So, you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.” – Steve Jobs Steve Jobs’ philosophy of trusting that dots will connect may be very difficult to fathom in this current landscape; but who are we to question the man who created the world’s first trillion-dollar company. Infinity International will be providing content to our clients on several relevant topics covering a variety of possible concerns during these unprecedented times. To do this, we are drawing on our own experience, client feedback as well as the input from others in our network. Last month we covered a series on FX hedging and how this could assist your business in managing the current market volatility. This month we are looking at the topics which could impact on currency and potentially drive emotional decision-making surrounding FX hedging. In this series, we will focus on five key looming dilemmas of 2020 and what this may mean for FX. There may only be one or two ‘trend changing’ events in a normal year, that could significantly impact the direction of exchange rates; however, this year we have seen COVID-19 increase volatility with several other events on the horizon. 2020 has been a rocky road to date, but there are five further topics that could further drive market volatility. Each week we will cover

2020-08-21T09:45:21+00:00August 20th, 2020|

Sterling Remains Supported as UK/EU Trade Negotiations Resume

Last week, we saw Sterling remain resilient despite underlying concerns over employment and being plunged into its deepest recession on record as the coronavirus lockdown saw the economy contract by more than a fifth in Q2. With the furlough scheme coming to an end in October there are obvious concerns. However, the monthly GDP for June, which may be seen as timelier, was higher than expected at 8.7% against 8.1% following the easing in lockdown measures. The market will be keen to see if the UK activity can sustain this momentum in the coming months. In the meantime, the UK confirmed that the next round of Brexit talks will take place in Brussels this week with negotiators. Plans include a dinner on Tuesday and a press conference on Friday, leaving only two full days of talks. This suggests that the potential for any breakthrough in negotiations remains limited. Nevertheless, UK chief negotiator Frost stated that a deal was achievable in September and Irish foreign minister Martin also stated that there was scope to find a landing zone in the negotiations. Elsewhere sentiment remained to the upside as broader economic data saw stocks and commodities climbing, a significant development as the Pound has shown itself to be a 'risk-on' currency. Eurozone industrial production rose strongly for the second straight month in June at 9.1% higher than in May; the largest rise since records began in 1991. In the US, the weekly jobless claims dropped below 1m; the first time since

2020-08-17T10:48:54+00:00August 17th, 2020|

UK Labour and GDP Numbers Set for Release, Both Set To Be Monitored Following BoE Dovish Tone

Last week the focus was on two events, the Bank of England (BoE) meeting and the US jobs data, whilst political tensions continued to rear their ugly head. There was an element of uncertainty ahead of last week’s BoE policy meeting, especially with uncertainty over the forward guidance within the statement. Also, there were some underlying fears over employment trends, especially with the number of employees on furlough still increasing, despite restrictions loosening. Unsurprisingly, therefore, no policy changes were forthcoming at the August meeting, with both Bank Rate and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme left unchanged – at 0.10% and £745bn respectively. However, the Committee continued to signal that the door remained firmly open to further stimulus being deployed, noting a commitment to take further action if, and as, required. This may be down to how the employment numbers look when the furlough scheme ends in October; as well as the nett effect on growth due to due to the measures and social behaviours regarding COVID. In the meantime, in the US, the focus was on the monthly job’s numbers, as well as other key data points hitting the market. Despite the rise in COVID-19 States, there was some encouraging data from the nation. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing both surpassed expectations and continued to grow. The monthly US non-farm payrolls market report had been eagerly awaited as the first important indication of how a recent surge in infections that has sparked a second round of business

2020-08-10T15:35:12+00:00August 10th, 2020|

Can Congress and US data stem the Dollar bleeding this week?

Last week the US Dollar continued to soften as economic data and politics failed to provide a boost. In terms of economic data, US initial jobless claims increased for a second consecutive week possibly a sign that economic growth may be cooling or faltering. Meanwhile, US second-quarter GDP contracted at an annualised rate of 32.9% after a 5.0% decline for the first quarter. This was the sharpest quarterly contraction on record by a substantial margin albeit expected given the crisis. With a unanimous vote, the Fed maintained the Fed Funds rate, in the 0.00-0.25% range, in line with consensus forecasts. Chair Powell stated that the evidence suggests that the pace of economic recovery had slowed since June and the pandemic is a disinflationary shock. He added that there is clearly a risk of a slowdown in the rate of growth and the labour market has a long way to go to recover. US politicians continue to debate whether to approve a fourth fiscal stimulus package as urged by Fed Chair Powell last week. The problem is that Congress is supposed to go into recess on Friday and some of the existing measures have expired. Sterling is on the front foot as data and comments boost the economy. UK mortgage approvals increased sharply to 40,000 for June from 9,300 the previous month. Further evidence from the Nationwide house price index show prices increased by 1.7% following the stamp duty tax cut. Also, the CBI retail sales report surged in July

2020-08-04T14:06:33+00:00August 3rd, 2020|

Could the US Dollar Continue to Weaken as We Head Toward November’s Presidential Elections?

By Jamie Jemmeson ACSI, MSTA at Infinity International It was a shock in 2016 when celebrity Republican nominee Donald Trump seized the White House against the odds; that said Brexit and Leicester City's Premiership crowning were also unlikely events. Four years on and President Trump's re-election campaign is looking wounded with his management of COVID-19 and the resulting fallout hurting his chances. Data from Real Clear Politics (RCP), a poll aggregator and news source, shows how his approval rating has slipped since the start of April; the height of COVID-19 which resulted in the loss of close to 20 million jobs at one stage. Fig 1 = RCP Poll Average[1] At the time of writing (24 June 2020), based on RCP betting odds aggregator, Democrat Joe Biden has a greater than 60% probability of winning the race to the White House (see Fig 2). However, ruling out President Trump would be foolish based on his accomplishments previously. However, it would not be a surprise if we see the nation's currency weaken as we approach the election as uncertainty increases. Fig 2: Betting odds[2] What does a Joe Biden win mean for the US dollar? While we recognise that there is a long way to go in the Presidential race, it is worth noting that markets often base value on the balance of probabilities which helps to explain and partly rationalise the reason why the US dollar is on the back foot. Since 1940 there has only been one incumbent

2020-07-29T16:14:21+00:00July 29th, 2020|

FOMC Meeting and US and EZ GDP Set for Release

Last week, the Euro pushed to the highest level seen against the US dollar since 2018 following the agreement between the EU 27 member states on how the Recovery Fund will operate. Leaders of 27 European Union countries reached a unanimous agreement on 750 billion euros ($860 billion) in coronavirus recovery funds, divided into grants worth 390 billion euros and low-interest loans worth 360 billion euros. It was the breakdown that took time to agree. It was vital that this was passed as the funds will be raised by the EU Commission using its AAA rating while there will be changes to EU rebates. The AAA rating means they will be able to borrow cheaper as a collective rather than individual countries; for example, Greece’s S&P rating is BB-, this is 9 notches lower than AAA. As a result, EURUSD has pushed circa 4.5% higher from the low of the month. In the meantime, sterling benefited against the US dollar as a result of the move on EURUSD but subsequently moved lower against the single currency. GBPUSD is now trading at its highest level since March against the US dollar despite ongoing uncertainty about the progress in talks between the EU and the UK on their future relationship. Economic data also helped pushed the currency higher as retail sales, service and manufacturing data all improved. The US dollar was on the back foot as concerns about deteriorating relations with China and that the US economic rebound is faltering prompted

2020-07-27T16:45:30+00:00July 27th, 2020|

Are You Prepared for Brexit Volatility?

We cannot predict the markets, but we can help you navigate them Sterling’s volatility is compounded by three factors, global COVID-19 sentiment, Brexit trade talks and BoE policy. It is worth noting that in the 4 years since the EU referendum we have seen Sterling trade in a large range (circa 36 cents against the US Dollar and 26 cents against the Euro). With the fallout of COVID-19 still unknown, the impacts could be felt harder by some businesses. We have compiled FX forecasts using data taken from over 40 financial institutions in an effort to predict the high, low and mean rates for the next 6 months: covering the phase of negotiations between the UK and EU and the impact of COVID-19. As can be seen, there are large differentials between the high and lows which highlight the potential volatility that could happen during this period as we ride ebbs and flows of progress and setbacks in the forthcoming talks. Download the PDF report for the details: Infinity_FX July Forecasts Are you managing the risk of your FX exposure? Infinity International would be happy to offer a complimentary FX review of your current process to offer a fresh perspective and to highlight any areas that could be made more efficient.  If you would like to organise a time for an exploratory conversation, please leave your details below. The review would encapsulate: Strategy ideation to align FX risk management with your business objectives FX

2020-08-12T10:15:53+00:00July 24th, 2020|

July 2020 FX Forecast

By Jamie Jemmeson ACSI, MSTA at Infinity International We have collected the views of over 40 financial institutions and distilled this, to articulate a single view of the high, low and mean forecasts for the next 12 months. It is fair to say, that so far in 2020, financial markets have been very unpredictable; few could have predicted a global lockdown situation. As the global economy emerges from lockdown restriction it is interesting to see that financial institutions are split on what this means for currencies. “The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis.” Ben Bernanke Download the PDF report for the details: Infinity_FX July Forecasts Infinity International would be happy to offer a complimentary FX review of your current process to offer a fresh perspective and to highlight any areas that could be made more efficient.  If you would like to organise a time for an exploratory conversation, please leave your details below. The review would encapsulate: Strategy ideation to align FX risk management with your business objectives FX volatility assessment to understand the impact of a significant FX rate Credit terms to ensure efficiency for cashflow when hedging currency (subject to approval) FX pricing to determine your current cost of your current provider vs Infinity International rate Fill out the below form to receive an obligation free FX review: Request a FREE FX Review We’re here

2020-08-12T11:35:11+00:00July 8th, 2020|