Last week the main focus was on the US Presidential Election which in the end dragged into the weekend following an unprecedented number of postal votes in particular states. However, over the weekend, Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, were declared as the winners of the US Presidential election, pending legal challenges from the Trump camp. The US Dollar weakened on the back of this news, but the news will continue to be monitored for legal challenge developments. The market will continue to analyse the situation but also look at what this means for markets in the long term especially with Brexit trade talks continuing.

In the meantime, Sterling received a boost last week as The Bank of England (BoE) expanded its bond-buying program by a bigger-than-expected £150 billion in another round of stimulus to help the economy through a second wave of Coronavirus restrictions. This will start in January and finish by the end of 2021, the BoE said. Officials are ready to step up the pace of purchases if market functioning worsens. Officials led by Governor Andrew Bailey voted unanimously to increase their asset-purchase target to 875 billion Pounds and keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.1%. Officials also slashed their estimates for economic growth, saying they now expected a contraction in the fourth quarter. More positive for Sterling was that there was talks of negative interest rates. In addition, Chancellor Sunak extends furlough out till March 21.

Looking to the week ahead, the market will continue to focus on development from President Trump’s legal challenges. UK PM Johnson stated on Saturday that a trade deal with the EU was ‘there to be done’. However, the EU’s Von der Leyen reiterated that significant differences remained, ahead of talks continuing in the coming week.

Monday

  • BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks

The Green Horizon Summit is due to take part today which both BoE Gov Bailey and ECB President Lagarde are both due to speak at. As head of their respective central banks their rhetoric will be closely monitored for clues on central bank policy moving forward despite their recent communication.

Tuesday

  • UK labour data
  • German ZEW survey

The UK’s labour data is due for release this morning which will provide some insight into how the UK economy is performing. However, these figures may not paint a fair representation given that furlough has just been extended through to March 2021. The unemployment rate for the three months to August increased more than expected to 4.5%. In the meantime, the German ZEW figures are due to provide on institutional investors and analysts views on the economy. What will be closely monitored is the current sentiment and their 6-month outlook.

Wednesday

  • UK NIESR GDP

It will be a quiet day today as US markets are closed for Veterans days. In the meantime, the UK’s NIESR estimates GDP data on a monthly basis in an effort to predict the quarterly government-released data. This is apt timing ahead of the Q3 reading on Thursday.

Thursday

  • UK GDP (Q3 – first reading)
  • BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • FOMC Chair Powell speaks

The September UK GDP figures will complete the picture for Q3. Growth in August slowed to 2.1%m/m, despite the boost to the accommodation and food services subsector from the Eat Out to Help Out scheme. The first reading of Q3 GDP is expected to bounce from the record contraction of 19.8% to post a reading of 15.6%. BoE Gov Bailey, ECB President Lagarde and FOMC Chair Powell are due to talk about monetary policy at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, via satellite. As head of their respective central banks their rhetoric will be closely monitored for clues on central bank policy moving forward.

Friday

  • EZ GDP
  • US Inflation data
  • US UoM Consumer Confidence

The second reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is due for release with no change expected. In the meantime, the US inflation data is released in the form of factory gate inflation; so looking at the cost of the producer prices. Following the recent Presidential election and campaigns the market will look to the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, although it may be too early to decipher given the ongoing developments

November FX forecast

Read our Monthly FX Forecast for a longer-term view of currency movement.

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