I hope everyone had a good bank holiday weekend – now back to the real world!
We open this morning with Sterling back up slightly against the Euro; low’s seen last week around 1.1440 didn’t hold, with a move back to 1.1535 this morning. The Euro has also rebounded from the recent highs seen against the Dollar. We saw an 11 month high last week around 1.1250 as risk in the market on the U.S political landscape continued to grow. We open this morning on EUR/USD around 1.1135.
Data from the Euro-Zone will be looked at today, with a decrease in Consumer Prices expected we may see the euro slide further against both Sterling and Dollar.
This afternoon the focus will shift to the U.S with a batch of data released. With pressure perhaps on the U.S to hike interest rates this month the data will be closely looked at. The 2 head-line figures are consumer confidence and personal expenditure (no huge change expected on either) but traders will watch these numbers and take positions on the Greenback accordingly – however Data is not expected to be poor enough to question the need for a rate hike.
All eyes in the U.K will surely now be firmly fixed on the election, with the market keen to see if the P.M’s lead has been eroded further based on the opinion polls. There is no important data in the UK today so we can assume that focus will remain on the political scene. Uncertainty on the lead of the Conservative party is a negative short-term for Sterling with many analysts suggesting a run back to 1.25 on GBP/USD to be firmly on the cards – should this be the case then we could see GBP/EUR touch the lowest levels since January around 1.13.
Have a good day!